Playoff Preview
This year’s playoff races seem to be a tale of two cities. In the western city, everything is wide-open and free-wheeling. A land where anyone may prosper and no one is summarily dismissed. In the eastern city, there is a concrete expectation, almost a certainty, that the elite will remain elite. That is the narrative at least and more time will be needed for it to unfold. But first there is the opening round; here is how the matchup’s breakdown:
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. # 8 Houston Rockets
Houston is building something. James Harden and Jeremy Lin are athletic guards who would have any coach up at night worrying about how to stop them from getting to the rim. But Scotty Brooks is not just any coach. He has Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.
Houston also has problems. Late in the end of games their offense often resorts to four guys standing and watching James Harden. Defenses quickly learn that by playing up on Harden, while staying at home on Houston’s shooters, they can render the Rockets offense to ineffectual down the stretch.
Harden’s new team won’t embarrass him in front of his old one. But they won’t win.
Prediction: Thunder in 6.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. # 7 Los Angeles Lakers
On paper, this shouldn’t be close. The Spurs have the best coach in basketball. The Spurs have stars that play together. The Spurs are the number two seed. The Lakers have lacked cohesion all year long. The Lakers have recently lost Kobe Bean Bryant for the season to a torn Achilles tendon. The Lakers are the number seven seed.
Unfortunately for San Antonio, the games aren’t played on paper.
Tony Parker, and early season MVP candidate, has been a shell of himself since injuring his ankle. In fact, in his last performance against the Lakers, he was 1 for 10 from the field. Lakers pg Steve Blake outscored him 23 to 4. In the last game of the Spurs season, against an injury ravaged Minnesota Timberwolves team, Parker was just 3 for 10 from the field. His partner in crime, Manu Ginobili, is struggling to recover from a strained hamstring. And it appears unlikely that he will be at full strength after playing just 12 minutes against Minnesota. Stephen Jackson was sent home for insubordination, and call me a pessimist, but resurrecting Tracey McGrady out of semi-retirement will not be the answer. Oh by the way, the Spurs are 3-7 over their last 10 games.
In contrast, the Lakers are coming on at the right time. They have won 5 in a row and are 8-2 over their last 10. Mike D’Antoni has finally figured out that he can play both Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol at the same time. And while the Lakers are not a better team without Kobe, they are playing better at the moment. The offense runs through Pau Gasol who has been reminding Laker fans why he was the lynchpin for two Laker championship teams. Dwight Howard is playing with such confidence that he is reminding us all why he is a three-time defensive player of the year. Jodie Meeks, Metta World Peace, and Steve Blake take care of the shooting. Oh, and did I mention Steve Nash is eyeing a return?
Sometimes, there is just no substitute for fortune.
Prediction: Lakers in 6.
#3 Denver Nuggets vs. #6 Golden State Warriors
This matchup pits two talented, well-coached young teams against each other. Both teams will want to push the tempo and both have skilled big men. The difference will be the war of attrition. Denver has lost Danilo Gallinari to injury. Golden State is at full strength.
Against the superb outside shooting of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson the Nuggets will need all of the perimeter help they can get. And David Lee is the best big man on the floor in this matchup.
Prediction: Warriors in 6.
#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies
The Clippers and Grizzlies present contrasting styles. Memphis will try to control the pace of the game by going inside to Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Los Angeles wants to speed the game up and wear down the big men of Memphis.
Although the Clippers have fallen slightly out of the championship discussion they are still formidable. Blake Griffen and DeAndre Jordan should be enough to contain the Memphis big men and the trio of Clipper guards (Billups, CP3, and Jamal Crawford) will ultimately be the difference in this series.
Prediction: Clippers in 7.
Eastern Conference
#1 Miami Heat vs. # 8 Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks have a dynamic backcourt with Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings. Acquiring J.J. Redick was the steal of this season’s trade deadline. Apparently, Brandon Jennings- by way of Twitter- has told basketball fans that he expects this Bucks team to shock the world.
Miami Heat Coach, Erick Spoelstra, brushed aside the comments telling ESPN, “They wouldn’t deserve me bringing it up”.
Generally it is not a good idea for coaches to dismiss bulletin board material. Good news for Spoelstra, he’s got Lebron James.
Prediction: Heat in 4.
#2 New York Knicks vs. # 7 Boston Celtics
This is arguably the most compelling series in the first round. Both of these teams are widely regarded as two of the top potential challengers to the Miami Heat. The New York Knicks will also be up against what will, no doubt, be an inspired Boston crowd in the aftermath of the bombings that occurred during the Marathon. The Celtics also boast the superior coach in Doc Rivers. And Carmelo Anthony has never felt this much pressure to a lead a team on a deep playoff run.
Still, the Knicks have better horses. The Celtics, as is true of any team in this league, have no answer for Carmelo Anthony. Further, the Celtics will sorely miss Rajon Rondo- a player who elevates his play during the postseason- and formerly departed 3-point king Ray Allen. With Kevin Garnett battling age and injuries it seems as though the Knicks simply have more talent. Beyond Carmelo, shooters like J.R. Smith and Steve Novak, give the Knicks a depth advantage. While, Jason Kidd and Pablo Prigioni provide experience and intelligence which will safely guide the Knicks through the ups and downs of the playoffs. That type of leadership was missing in years past. This year it isn’t.
Prediction: Knicks in 7.
#3 Indiana Pacers vs. #6 Atlanta Hawks
The Indiana Pacers looked poised to be the sleeper pick to knock off the Miami Heat. As the season progressed experts soon deduced that the Indiana Pacers lacked the necessary scoring punch to beat the Heat over a seven game series as evidenced by the fact that they rank 23rd in the league in scoring.
But, the Pacers are stout defensively. They are 2nd in the league in points allowed and 1st in the league in rebounding. Outside of Al Horford, Atlanta has no one to contain the Pacers frontline of George, West, and Hibbert. The default rule is when in doubt bet against Atlanta in the playoffs, this year there is no doubt.
Prediction: Indiana in 5.
#4 Brooklyn Nets vs. # 5 Chicago Bulls
The Nets (6th in points allowed) are anchored by star center Brook Lopez (19.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.08 bpg). With Joakim Noah battling injury, coupled by the departure of Omar Asik, look for Lopez to have his way in this series. Moreover, the Deron Williams- Kirk Hinrich matchup should favor Brooklyn. Although Hinrick is relentless defensively, due to Williams’ size advantage and his ability to score the basketball look for him to win this battle.
Ultimately, this series is broken down simply. Both teams are good defensively, the difference is the Nets stars will be able to create shots down the stretch where the Bulls will lack the offense to consistently win (they are 29th in the league in scoring after all). Because the Bulls are tough and well-coached by Tom Thibodeau, don’t bet on them to go quietly.
Prediction: Nets in 7..