Today’s games 11/24
Bucks+1.5 at Cavs
The Milwaukee Bucks currently give up an NBA low 91.1 points a game to their opponents. This has lead many a sports writer to publish a bunch of fluff about how “solid” and “dominant” the Bucks D is, but the utterly dishearteningly bitter Milwaukee beer taste truth of the matter is that with their nursing home impotent 91.4pts a game, the Bucks are the WORST scoring offense in the league. To make matters even worse the Bucks average A LEAGUE WORST 17.4 assists a game.
What this means is that Rajon Rondo (14.7 Asts/gm) by himself is virtually averaging more assists than the ENTIRE BUCKS TEAM. Thus it’s not so much a matter of how great the Bucks are on defense but rather how much 1-1 basketball they play in order to get their shots. If baskets aren’t coming off of assists than they’re coming off of players like PG Brandon Jennings or SF Corey Maggette having to use much of the shot clock dribbling around in order to score.
The more time the Bucks take off the clock searching for their offense as though it were Bin Laden, the less time remains in the game for their opponents to put up points. If the BUCKS’ D were actually as legitimate as the fluffies say it is the Buck’s record wouldn’t be the in the Dahmer victim shape of 5-8 it’s currently in. The Bucks do however get rebounds and are currently ranked 4th in total rebounds with an average of 44.6 Rebs a game.
The Cavaliers will play in front of their home crowd hoping to bounce back after getting trainwrecked by the Indiana Pacers in Indiana last night. THE Tip In had this PICK last night with INDI having to win by 4.5. The Pacers easily covered the spread beating Cleavland 100-89. The Cavs like the Bucks have also proven themselves to be a very bad basketball team. The Cavs currently rank in the lower 30% of NBA teams in both rebounding and assists. They are 25th/30 in ppg. averaging a weak 95.8 points a game and give up an 18th ranked 101.2 points a contest. As mentioned in yesterday’s blog post, the Cavs do have a great coach in Byron Scott but they have a roster full of players that have only been good at being woefully inconsistent. (For further analysis just look at the 11/23 edition of The Tip In) The Cavs like the Bucks also have a 5-8 record going into this winner is still a loser basketball game tonight.
The Cavs may have a legimate chance at winning this potential brickathon of a game because of an injury to the Bucks’ former #1 overall draft pick C/PF Andrew Bogut. Without Bogut in the lineup due to back spasms, the Bucks other players will have to account for an additional 11pts and 12 rebounds. Bogut has proven that he can be a monster on inside on both O and D. Neither of the two players playing in Bogut’s absence (Drew Gooden nor Jon Brockman) can fill that void, although they’ll try. The Bucks will however have the best two players on the court in PG Phenom Brandon Jennings and foul drawing machine SF Corey Maggette.
This is so ugly of a game that betting on either team is HIGHLY ILL-ADVISED. The Pick Man would take the Bucks to win just on Jennings, but ONLY IF HE HAD TO BET on one of these two miserable Eastern Central Conference teams but save yourself the aggravation and let this one be. No matter which team wins this game, even in victory they’re losers.
76ers at Raptors -5.5
Playing on the 2nd night of a back to back, the 76ers will desperately try to avoid a 2nd consecutive loss. Last night the 76ers were happy to see SF Andre Iguodala’s return to their lineup from a sore achilles. AI2′s return to the 6er line upresulted in his leading the team with 23 points, 11 rebs. and 8 assists. As has been the case more often than not throughout his career, Iguodala’s performance could not offset another 76er loss.
Just like the Pick Man told you here yesterday on The Tip In, “If Andre Igs. plays for Phili and Wall doesn’t play expect a Wizards loss but should Wall play anything’s possible and that’s not the kind of risk worth taking.” Rookie PG Sensation John Wall continued to make anything possible coming off of the bench in his return from a foot sprain, to score all of his 25 points in the second half and do the impossible by hoisting a three pointer to draw a 3 shot foul with 3.5 seconds to go in the game. Much to the standard 76er demise, Wall made all three free-throws to send the game into overtime. The Wizards went on to win the game in OT by the final of 116-114.
As described here yesterday, the Doug Collins Era as head coach of the 76ers continues to be an utter disaster. The team is now off to a horrific 3-11 start, with a lottoball trail ROAD record of 1-7. The only bright spot for the 76ers is that PF Elton Brand is fully recovered from last season’s injury and almost fully back to his double-double form. Brand is currently averaging close to 17pts and 8 rebs a game. The bad news for Phili however aside from having to take their woeful away record into Toronto’s gym tonight, is that the league may suspend Brand for tonight’s game as a result of his committing a hard Flagrant 2 foul last night. This would leave the already awful 76ers in an even worse position of getting a rare road win because of the ineptitude of those who would fill Brand’s void. Phili is currently scoring 3points less per game than what they’re allowing their opponents to score. The math’s not hard here, that equals losses, lots of losses. Additionally, Phili’s #2 overall draft pick, NCAA 2010 player of the year SG Evan Turner doesn’t even rank in the top 10 rookies thus far. Turner’s shooting a bricklayer’s 10% from 3’s and continuously adding to the brick pile by falling in love with perimeter jumpers. Turner’s not even averaging double figures in scoring and is living up to the bust billing that many analysts predicted. Although it’s only 14 games into his career, with Doug Collins as his coach, Turner’s offensive inefficiency is most likely to continue.
The Toronto Raptors meanwhile are coming off of an impressive home over the Boston Celtics, against whom the Raptors had lost their previous 12 meetings. This was a huge win for the Raptors even though the Celtics were without Rondo. PF/C Andrea Bargnani showed why he is a former #1 overall pick with a 29 point performance in the win. Bargnani leads the Raptors in scoring, averaging over 21 pts/g.
Prior to the win over Boston, the Raptors also got a huge late second victory over the Orlando Magic in Orlando. The Raptors average a league high 20 fast break points per contest. Wingmen Sonny Weems and DeMar DeRozan alongside the “Blur” Leandro Barbosa are the catalysts of Toronto’s explosive transition game. Weems and DeRozan are both high flyers and will look to stuff at every opportunity. The 76ers will most likely give Weems and DeRozan the opportunity to fly because the 6ers are averaging close to 16 turnovers a game. The Raptors are also looking forward to inserting newly acquired players SG/SF Peja Stojakovic and PG Jerryd Bayless into their rotation and there may be a glimpse of this tonight.
The Raptors may have the most international roster in the league with Barbosa, Bargnani, Leinas Kleiza, Jose Calderon, and Peja Stojakovic. Aside from all these guys being international basketball players, they’re also almost all deadly from beyond the arc and it’s going to be interesting to see the kind of hell that’s brought on opposing defenses by spreading the floor with Bargnani, Barbosa, Stojakovic and Kleiza out on the perimeter. Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo appears to have done a fine job on paper in replicating the explosive offense he helped build in Phoenix. Colangelo knows what he’s doing here. Amir Johnson and Reggie Evans will pound the glass, Weems and DeRozan will throw it down, and Bargnini, Kleiza, Stojakovic, and Barbosa will scorch the net from the outside.
In their previous Eastern Atlantic Division match up against the 76ers, the Raptors left Philadelphia with a solid 94-86 win behind Andrea Bargnani’s stellar 30 pt. performance.
The Raptors are currently on a season high 3 game win streak and will look to extend the streak to 4 against Phili tonight in Toronto.
The Raptors are currently 5-9 and playing against a team that they have beaten before and should beat tonight, especially if Brand is disallowed from playing tonight. Now that it appears that the right pieces are at least on paper to make this Raptor team an explosive offensive team, don’t be surprised if they start to make an early playoff push.
In a game between two below .500 teams like these it’s safer to stay away because both teams have proven themselves to be more than capable of losing. However if Phili PF Elton Brand is suspended for this game, as many believe he will be, THE RAPTORS ML on a parlay or the Raptors -4 could prove to be a good pick but that’s after buying 1.5 points.
Pay close attention to how this new look Raptor roster develops its chemistry they may become a sleeper team in the East.
New Jersey Nets +11.5 at Boston Celtics
The Nets surprised the Pick Man last night by defeating the Atlanta Hawks 107-101in overtime at the Prudential Center in Newark last night.
The Tip In bet against the Nets by taking the Hawks-3 on a small amount of bread and came up with mold, despite the Hawks having been able to send the game into overtime. Prior to losing to the Nets, the Hawks received a through 23 point, 99-76 good ole’ fashion NBA ASS WHOOPN’ in Atlanta courtesy of the Celtics minus star PG Rajon Rondo, which lead Hawks Coach Larry Drew to expresses to the media afterwards that both he and his players felt embarrassed. Well if Drew and his suddenly plummeting Hawks team felt embarrassed after the Celtics pounded them, who knows how awful they must feel after having been FULLY DOMINATRIXED by the formidable Nets duo of PG Devin Harris and C Brooke Lopez, the former put up 27 and the latter BIG MAN pounded the interior for a rock solid 32 points.
4 of the Nets’ starters hit for double digits against the Hawks, and the Nets will be looking to keep that momentum headed into Boston and play against one of the BEASTS OF THE EAST. The Celtics played uninspired basketball in their two previous outings, prior to whipping the Hawks. Those losses came at home against an under-manned Oklahoma City Thunder team that came in without the services of SF Kevin Durant and PF Jeff Green. The next loss was to the Raptors in Toronto after SF Paul Pierce missed what would have been a bet winning jumpshot for The Tip In. The Celtics then did what the Hawks can’t yet seem to do and pulled themselves together vowing to play inspired basketball at the very next chance they had. Unfortunately for the Hawks it was them who ran into the inspired basketball playing Celtic chainsaw.
The Nets won the last game they played against the Celtics in February, which ended a 12 game losing streak to Boston. The caveat to that victory being that Boston’s surefire hall of famer SF Paul Pierce missed the game due to injury. In tonight’s match-up against the Celts in Boston, the Nets will once again most likely play a short-handed Celtics team. At this hour of 4:40 P.M ET,- 1:40 PST, all signs point to this season’s assist master Rondo missing another game due to a strained hamstring. Nate Robinson will probably start again for the Celtics as he did for the previous 2 games Rondo missed. In Rondo’s absence Robinson scored 16 points in the Raptor loss and came to play in the Celtics’ pummeling of the Hawks on Monday, with season highs of 22 points and 10 assists.
Tonight the Celtics must come out and play inspired defense on Nets’ C Brooke Lopez. Lopez is having a break out year with averages of 18 pts/g and an imposing 1.7 BLKS/g as well.
Lopez should feel Celtic meat on his frame all night as the Celtics will look to Shaq and KG to match up with Lopez inside and out. Nets SG Anthony Morrow will also have his hands with one of the greatest shooters of all time in Ray Allen. Nets SF Travis Outlaw will also have his work cut out for him in trying to contain The Truth Paul Pierce. Perhaps the most daunting task on defense will be the task Nets’ PF’s Rookie Derrick Favors and veteran Kris Humphries face in trying to cage the animal that is The Big Ticket KG Kevin Garnett. Garnett is 18 months removed from knee surgery and is already on pace to have as many DBL-DBL’s by December of this season as he had by February of last season.
Sounds like KG’s back and that means at least 30 minutes of hell on both the offensive and defensive end for the Nets. Perhaps the only favorable match up that the Nets can exploit tonight is that of Devin Harris vs. whomever Doc brings in at point. Harris is a 6’4 quick stutter step ankle breaking cross over dunk point guard who can also shoot the rock consistently from distance. If Harris does start going off, look for Doc to sick Pierce loose on him on D.
Both teams’ role players performances will ultimately lead them to victory in the outcome of this game.
The Nets were heavy UNDERDOGS against the East’s Other Beast Orlando Magic earlier this season in New Jersey and finished the game losing by 5, not the -11 that Odds makers predicted. The same occurrence is very likely to happen again tonight. That DOESN’T MEAN THAT A BET ON THE NETS is RECOMMENDED, what it DOES MEAN is that while the Celtics are most certainly capable of soundly thrashing the visiting Nets, it’s very unlikely to happen tonight, given the toughness that new Nets coach Avery Johnson brings to this once terrible Nets team and given the fact that all signs point towards Rajon Rondo sitting this one out.
Celtics on the ML, OR BOSTON as low as possible with POINTS BOUGHT to BRING SPREAD to single digits.
If the Celts are inspired again to play basketball, expect the start of another Boston win streak over the Nets.
Miami Heat at ORL Magic -3.5 (or if Carter plays -4.5)
The last time the Miami Heat were in action they got smoked on their home court by an Indiana Pacer team that didn’t even make the Playoffs last season. Prior to that disappointing loss the Heat also lost to a perennial playoff absentee Memphis Grizzlies team on a game winning buzzer beater by SF Rudy Gay.
To make things disastrously worse for the Heat, PF Udonis Haslem went down with a serious ligament tear in his foot and underwent surgery yesterday to fix the injured extremity. Haslem could be out the rest of the whole season or maybe come back much later in March. Keep an eye on that injury because Haslem was the Heat’s leading rebounder with 8+ a game and was their toughest player not named LeBron James. Without Haslem’s interior prowess on D and defensive rebounds, and with Bosh’s softness instead, the Indiana Pacers blazed a +400 ML for The Tip In as well as smashing a +10 handicap with an impressive 93-77 freezing of the Heat.
DWade has been played with a sprained wrist against the Pacers and that didn’t go too well, 3pts 1-13 fg’s and 1/5 ft’s. It’s the feeling of this BLOG that Wade’s wrist injury is more bothersome than we’ve been lead to believe and that Wade’s wrist will be a huge factor in tonight’s game against the Magic in Orlando.
While the “Superteam” Heat were getting embarrassed by non-contenders, the Magic played the Spurs-4.5 in San Antonio. The Spurs beat the Magic by 9 covering the spread as picked by the Pick Man here on the Tip In Blog. The Magic’s Vince Carter sprained his knee during that loss and is thus listed as questionable for tonight. If Carter is unable to go tonight, he will be easily replaced with the defensively hardnosed down town assassin SG Michel Pietrus.
Pietrus actually matches up better with D.Wade than Vinsanity because Carter is more of matador defender and makes up for it on the offensive end.
The Magic will also pound the ball inside to Dwight Howard, given how well documented the Heat’s soft interior D has been.
The Heat hope to harden that defense tonight by bringing in new acquired free agent Erik Dampier. Fresh off of a tour of every Old Country Buffet in the country Dampier drops into the Heat’s lineup.
It’s unknown what type of conditioning Dampier has but it is certain that he’s a big 7’ftr that can clog the lane and could be paired with Zydrunas to create a formidable forest on the inside, which will allow Chris Bosh to play tiddly winks at the SF slot rather than continue his run of getting embarrassed by aggressive PF’s/C’s as was seen in virtually all of Miami’s losses thus far. Dampier will be the key for the Heat in their attempts to corral LEAGUE’s BEST CENTER Dwight Howard.
Orlando was destroyed in Miami by 26 but that was in the season’s infancy. Tonight will serve as more of a statement game for Florida’s 2 smack talking teams 15 players with 2 rings between all 30 of them and one of the 2 dudes is undergoing potential season ending foot surgery, while the other is possibly playing with a bent-sprained wrist. Neither of these teams mean anything to the league outside of showcasing tremendous superstars.
Both teams are for the most part composed of individually great superstars who’ve never taken a team to the promisedland, with exeption of D.Wade. Both LBJ and D.Howard tasted LOSERS but neither of their teams was ever really a threat to the eventual champion. Even in the years where everyone thought that LBJ and Dwight’s teams were the odds on favorites, those teams choked.
The Pick Man wagered on a +490 series ML on the Celtics over Cavs last year and then +500 on C’s beating D.Howard to play for the trophy. Until LeBron, D.Howard, or C.Bosh actually take a team to the brink of a title say even a game 7 with a buzzer beater loss, to where either Kobe, Timmy, or even KG in an Eastern Conference final would have been scared of the outcome, they will not be taken seriously as full challengers to either the Spurs, Lakers, or Celtics, which are the three dynasties left standing until none of them remain for the Gold.
So now let’s see what happens in their game tonight. If Wade is hurt, the Heat will most likely lose this game. Also, how much of an impact could Dampier really make if “chemistry problems” still exist? If after 14 games of playing together the Super 3 still take turns dribbling the ball and playing 1-1 as they are now, how the hell do they figure to get chemistry with Dampier on the fly?
Over the long haul, if he stays healthy Dampier is a huge acquisition but prior to latest free agency stint he was putting up microscopic numbers out west. The things that matter most about Dampier are his size and his toughness.
SF/PF Rashard Lewis of the Orlando Magic has been quietly having a horrible year, so too has JJ Reddick, but it’s early in the season and both of these guys can heat up in a flash.
Bass and Gortat should also give the Heat a lot of problems tonight because Miami doesn’t have equally talented BIG’s that can stay on the floor with either of them.
Bosh guarded Rashard Lewis the last time these teams met and did a great job of shutting him down but it’s very unlikely that Orlando’s 3 point assassins show up as cold as they were in Miami in their new arena.
Orlando is at home favored to win by 4 with revenge on their minds as well making a statement of their own. The Tip In is taking the Orlando Magic-4 over the Miami Heat tonight. Even with Dampier there, Orlando has too many bigs and too deep a bench to not exploit Miami’s comparatively weak role players.
Detroit at Memphis-7
Not sure why Memphis has such a high spread. Just for a win at home over the Heat? The Pistons have been absolutely GOD AWFUL at times. Tay Prince has already had a shouting match with his coach along the bench. The C Monroe gets his shots blocked 28% of the time in which ghe shoots in the paint.
Neither Mike Conley nor Rodney Stuckey are point guards that are solid enough to run the offensive fire power each of their respective teams possesses. Memphis has 4 quality starters in Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol, and Zach Randolph. Conley shouldn’t have been given the extension but it’s what the Grizz decided to do. For reasons unbeknown to anyone O.J. Mayo’s jumpshot has completely disappeared and at times looks more like that Norwood miss against the Giants that went wide. Mayo’s been getting the same playing time that he got before, but his productivity has declined. Hopefully this is just an early season thing, because if it’s not start scratching LOTTO tickets.
Neither, in spite of beating the dysfunctional Heat with NO D.WADE and having won games against both Suns and the Mavericks, the Grizzlies have gotten their lunch taken from them more often than not. The Grizzlies at 5-9 playing against the Chernobyl aftermath of his drafting Darko over Melo’, Bosh and Wade, trading Billups for Iverson, letting Larry Brown go, hiring Michael Curry?#$%$% then now this new scrub Kuester?
Rip Hamilton looks like he’s older than Reggie Miller out there. His numbers have plummeted like WAMU fall 2007 stock prices.
The free agents brought in include the most overrated player never to make it past the first round in Tracy McGrady who “KNEEds” somebody to lean on to score these days.
Ben Gordon is only good for offense and no defense. The Pistsons are completely log jammed at the SF and G positions and this never allows for proper lineup managment or rotation. Whatever the case may be both of these franchises are the outhouses of their respective cities.
There is no way hell I would bet on this game. 8 either way is too high or too low.
Spurs at Timberwolves+8
LOCK OF THE DAY SAN ANTONIO by 8 or buy points if you want a lower spread. The Spurs have owned the Wolves, winning each of the last three meetings by 18 points.
Minnesota’s only strength is on the boards. C Darko Milicic and PF Kevin Love along side SF Michael Beasley make a formidable trio of rebounders.
Richard Jefferson has been the Spurs high scorer here too.
Parker had 55 here one night.
But the numbers don’t lie. Spurs=6 best D, Top 10 offense averaging 107 while the Wolves have been a top 4 rebounding team but are currently THE VERY WORST DEFENSIVE TEAM allowing over 110 a game.
Say goodnight Wolves, Duncan is coming to hunt you.
Ginoboli is currently the Spurs leading score with better than 21 a clip. He’ll come out agressive too.
Nola at Utah-3.5
Utah has won the last 4 meetings between the two of these teams. Nola just ruined a 5 team Tip In Parlay by crapping their pants in Staples Center by losing to the now 2-13 Clippers. Nola also failed to cover against the wretched Kings and shot terribly in both Sactown and LA Clip land.
Deron Williams is averaging a double double against Chris Paul.
Raja Bell will lock on Marco Bellinelli
AK47 will sniper Ariza
Millsap will make his presence known to David West
Al Jefferson, who has been underachieving compared to previous years should have fun abusing Okafor at the rim.
Tip In has the Jazz by 3.5 and the Over 191.5
Dallas at Okc-4
Both of these teams played last night, both were victorious also. Kevin Durant made his return from a sprained ankle and dropped buckets on the Timberwolves. Jeff Green also came back with a solid effort for OKC which won its 5th straight game. Perhaps most amazing of the stretch has been the play of Russell WestBrook, who took over at Boston and Milwaukee.
The Mavericks meanwhile have gotten little from guys from whom they thought they’d get a lot. Caron Butler has not been able to consistently get his shot going, Jason Terry has had some way off nights, but Dallas zone has lead them to be in the Top 10 defensively and among league leaders in points allowed. Tyson Chandler has been a great fit here and he may give the Thunder fits tonight.
Although I see the 60 points that I am sure to get from R.Westbrook and K.Durant, I don’t see who in the hell on this team is going to stop Dirk, Chandler, or Haywood. Dallas on the ML for a small piece of bread is not a bad bet here neither is taking Dallas +4 but not too high because OKC is on fire but Dallas could put that fire out.
Pick man has Dallas-4. and Dallas money line.
Chicago at Phoenix-3.5
This game is way too hard to call because Chicago has been winless there for a little while. But at the same time Joakim Noah would eat the Suns interior at this current juncture of his career. Also the Bulls’ defense is damn good. Kobe was not the big scorer last night neither was Gasol.
Derek Rose has been playing out of this world and at various times last night the Lakers could have had 7 guys out there and still been unable to stop him.
The Bulls continue to make young mistakes as evidenced by their high turnovers last night but their defense is becoming one of the best and when Boozer comes back this team is ready to snow plow through the East.
The Blog has the Bulls, Knicks, Mavericks, and Spurs on a 10pt Teaser meaning the Suns have to beat Chi by 13, Okc-14 vs Dallas, Charlotte -15.5 vs. Knicks and Spurs+2 at MNN. This can give you up to 76% back on your wager and is an easy pickens.
Let’s See Who Gets Stuffed Tonight Gobble Gobble NE by 6.5 over Lions tomorrow……
Enjoy the Games